Wednesday, 17 December 2014

Oil Price Free Fall, the black swan event?

Were you afraid of the recent oil price free-fall? Is this the black swan event that will crash the world economy?

"On December 23, 2008, WTI crude oil spot price fell to US$30.28 a barrel, the lowest since the financial crisis of 2007–2010 began, and traded at between US$35 a barrel and US$82 a barrel in 2009."

Today the spot price is slightly over US$50. How does the low price and over supply affect the economy? Naturally the oil production for oil producing country may suffer which Russia is the main economy, lets see what effect this economy have on the world economy. 

Russia is no. 8 on the IMF world GDP ranking which is roughly 2% of the world's GDP?
According to

Seriously, Russia has been in sanction at some time or another, the current collapse of the Ruble will not affect World GDP much looking at the percentage of the GDP it contributes. 

Do not be worried about the short term free-fall. It just says there is an opportunity to take advantage of the blood in the streets. Wait a few months and jump in to the fallen asset class, namely energy stocks. Also, in terms of leverage, interest rate hike will be slower with each wave of crisis. Interest have to be low to entice businesses to take on risks to grow the economy. 

Is Oil price fall the 4th QE, it looks likely that the free fall will stimulate the emerging economy and for oil producing countries, a short term problem. Sooner or later, the weaker nations will give up and seek out a buyer for their future produce and that would cushion the cashflow, much like taking loan from IMF. 

I'm bullish. Cheers!

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