Monday, 8 December 2014

Macro Economy and Real Estate

More often than not, we are seriously affected by the "consumer" behaviour. Does the property look nice, does it have great view, it is rare, limited in supply? Let me tell you, it really does not matter as we are not the ones staying in the unit. 

Pay attention to Macro economic indictors. If the economy is in depression, how does the government turn things around using fiscal policy such as interest, tax, labour reforms, etc to change the situation around.

US has chosen to let loose on the monetary supply to allow economy to work itself back to health. 

Europe has chosen austerity measures.

Lets look at australia the lucky country. What has the Government done to improve falling commodity price, high priced of exports, labour / knowledge shift? 

It has not in any sense of the word done anything to restructure the economy to withstand future shocks. Would it need to? Rich countries like Singapore often have a backload of infrastructure projects to spend on to create jobs when economy is down, thus enabling its economy to continue functioning and in good times, deploy fiscal policy to improve its coffers. I think without going into deep research, I hazard a guess Australia will spend its way out of economic downturn. Question is how long is this downturn, I hazard a guess again that Australia might need a little help in the labour reforms to help to achieve a more structural balanced economy.

The economy is balanced isn't it? Lets use the example of the economic policy it have. When times of economic downturn, it can adjust its interest rate to devalue its currency to boost tourism and education sector. In times of growth, it can call the shots and increase the currency value to boost exports. A perfect system! 

I would love to learn more how macro economy can be used to predict housing demand.

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